Is there really a climate crisis?

In the United States, there has been no increase in flood magnitudes in any region since the 1920s, and no nationwide increase in drought since 1900 as measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index. There has been no trend since 1900 in the strength or frequency of U.S. land-falling hurricanes, and none in hurricane-related damages once losses are adjusted for increases in population, wealth, and the consumer price index.

Globally, the total area burned by wildfires has decreased every decade since the 1940s, and NASA reports that the number of square kilometers burned fell by about 25 percent between 2003 and 2019. In addition, all major indicators of human health and well-being such as life expectancy, per capita income, and crop yields have improved dramatically during the era of global warming.

Finally, whatever effects global warming may be having on the weather since the 1920s, the individual risk of dying from extreme weather globally has decreased by 99 percent, and since 1990, the relative economic impact of extreme weather (measured as a percent of global GDP) has declined. Where is the real-world evidence that climate change is a crisis?

The recent National Climate Assessment claimed that global warming could reach 14°F and lop 10% off US GDP by century’s end. However, to get that alarming result, the assessment ran an ensemble of models that on average project twice as much warming over the past 40 years as actually occurred. Worse, the modelers used an inflated emissions scenario in which coal scales up rapidly to provide nearly half of all global energy by 2100 – a percentage not seen since 1940.

Even with that biased combo, warming hits 14°F in only 1% of model projections – a detail the assessment failed to mention. Clearly, the National Climate Assessment needs to be fixed.